Title

Head to head : the coming economic battle among Japan, Europe, and America

Description

Discusses the three major world powers and the competition for world economic supremacy.

Identifier

1170343

446394971

Creator

Thurow, Lester C

Format

Warner Books ed.

Source

Brian Lamb Booknotes Collection

Gift of Brian Lamb, 2011.

Catalog record

Language

eng

Date

1993

Program air date: May 31, 1992.

Publisher

Warner Books

George Mason University. Libraries. Special Collections & Archives

Subject

"Economic history--1990-"

"Economic forecasting."

"International economic relations."

Relation

Original Booknotes interview

Rights

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Text

Transcription of Annotations
Notes on front endpapers: Japanese secret p. 118, desire for an empire. Autos, computers, semi conductors, consumer electronics, airplanes. Japan--"have the momentum" p. 257, Americans--"ability to organize"--richest, Europeans--"most likely to have 21st century named for them." Japan builds more cars. Europe buys and builds more cars. Page 200 MIT? Pg. 212 American firms are now guarding their technology. God and Africa pg. 216. Notes on half-title: Systems--differences between America and Japan Germany. New Products v. new processes. Notes on back endpapers--verso has hash marks next to publications and Robert Kuttner, Ishihara and in end papers a neat list: 1. Economist 62; 2. New York Times 43; 3. Financial Times 38; 4. Fortune 17; 5. Japan Economics J. 13; 6. Brookings 10; 7. International H.T. 5; 8. Business Week 5; 9. Boston Globe 5; 10. German Tribune 5; 11. Wall Street J. 4. Notes/underlinings: Bear in the woods. Communist Cuba, wave of the future. Former Soviet Union will not return to status quo ante--USSR is gone. GATT-Bretton Woods system. Nowhere are necessary changes going to be harder to make than in the United States. Junk Bonds; S&L's; Banks; Pensions; Insurance. Corporations--too much debt. Gulf War. Japan not a military technology leader. 6 Trillion GNP--profit on Gulf War. Military Superpower into 21st Cent. What 3rd world Countries will make it in the First? GATT-Bretton Woods trading system, Marshall Plan, European Coal and Steel Community--worked better than believed possible. 4 Tigers. Great Britain--19th century; 20th century--United States; 21st Century--? Berlin Wall Europe 1992 /number 1 economic power! Margaret Thatcher downfall, European integration. German Bundesbank--effective central bank for Europe. 21st century--head-to-head competition. Japanese edition of "The Japan that can say no" Ishihara states that the 21st century will have economic warfare, not military; Japan will win. 1990 Helmut Kohl--1990s will be decade of the Europeans, not Japanese. Communitarian vs. individualistic values--US/Britain--I vs. Germany/Japan--we. In Japanese business, employees are seen as #1 stakeholder, customers 2nd, shareholders 3rd. March 1990 two biggest business groups in the world (Mitsubishi--Japan; Daimler Benz-Deutsche Bank group--Germany) secret meeting to discuss global alliance. 7 key industries: microelectronics, biotechnology, the new materials industries, civilian aviation, telecommunications, robots plus machine tools, computers/software. Those who make cheaper products, take it away from inventor. GATT-Bretton Woods trading system dead--no new conference unless a dominant political power can force agreement. Europe '92--12/31/1992--European Community (EC)--world's largest economic market. Single market must offer advantage to European companies. Euro-pessimism to Euro-optimism. Age-based seniority; market share up, never down. Japan, better/exceptional? If excep.--will force major changes in capitalism around the world. Japanese car manufacturing in US eclipsed European/Japanese. IBM Semiconductors--in two decades those who founded/dominated losing industry. Motorola new factories in Japan. Germans--cannot compete in Japanese market. Japanese tapped desire to build, belong to empire, to conquer neighboring empires, became world's leading economic power. Japan--producer economics vs. Anglo-Saxon consumer economics. 69% of sr. managers of Japanese subsidiaries in US are Japanese. 20% of sr. managers of US subsidiaries in Japan are American. Economic wolf packs. China. 1950 US. Post WWII--5 economic advantages: 1. US market 9 times as large as next largest market, mass manufacturing--American monopoly; 2. Superior technology--built products foreigners could not--Boeing 707 flew; 3. US workers more skilled, compulsory public elementary/secondary education. 1st nation with mass higher education; 4. US rich/others poor; 5. American managers best in the world. Today US at bottom 20th of 23 industrial countries in R&D. School--180 days in US, 220-240 days in Germany, 240 days in Japan, 250 days in Korea. 71% graduation rate in US, 94% in Japan, 91% in Germany. US graduate schools have no equal. None of world's exciting new infrastructure projects in US. Japanese managers rated better than American managers by 48%. 1990, 11 countries wages exceeded those in US. Commercial aircraft--America's largest single export. Consumer electronics. Dumping. Americans demand too high return on investment. If do not receive ROI, leave industry. Steel. Chemicals. 3 largest German chemical firms--Bayer, Base, Hoechst) more than 50% larger than largest US firm, DuPont. Route to success not low wages. Germany=world's largest exporter of textiles/wages $4/hr. higher than in US. Italy higher textile wages than US. Autos--in 20 years US has gone from auto-export surplus to deficit. European firms earn more on US auto sales than do Japanese. US auto production now 3rd. 1980s 2 of top 10 cars made by Big 3 American producers--start of 1990s only one of top 10 made by big 3. MIT--Leaders in Manufacturing and Management of Technology. Fall, 1990, Cincinnati Milicron, last remaining US manufacture of heavy robots--sold to Swiss company. 1870:1988. 1870 US 6th richest country per capita, 1988 2nd based on internal purchasing power, 8th richest based on external purchasing power. Impossible for country to become rich in context of rising population. New American needs investment of $240,00 before he/she capable of fitting into US economy as self-sufficient, average citizen-worker-consumer. No country rich without a century of good economic performance/century of slow population growth. Little dragons. Hong Kong--one country,2 economic systems. US firms guarding technology/demanding larger licensing fees. Europe keeps 4 little dragons out of its markets. Japan could become center of Pacific Rim trading block--flying goose formation. US better trading partner than Japan for little dragons. World economy outgrown post WWII cooperative relationships. Momentum on side of Japan. Strategic position on side of Europeans. When other countries catch up with US productivity, growth will slow, may catch up, will not pass. Smart country starts playing keep-up early.